Growth is driven by more than 600 million new Internet users, increasing mobile access, Wi-Fi expansion and demand for video services
Driven by the phenomenal growth in new Internet users and increasing mobile access, Wi-Fi expansion and demand for video services, the Internet traffic in India by 2020 will be 249 times the volume of the entire Indian Internet in 2005, said Cisco’s annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) forecast.
The digitisation transformation, based on the adoption of personal devices and deployment of machine-to-machine (M2M) connections, will have a greater impact on traffic growth in the country, said Cisco’s report.
According to the forecast, over the next five years, in India, there will be 1.9 billion networked devices, up from 1.3 billion in 2015, faster broadband speeds from 5.1 Mbps in 2015 to 12.9 Mbps and the increased consumption of video.
Collectively, these variables are expected to help IP traffic in India to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% – as against a corresponding global CAGR of 22%, said the report.
With the rise in traffic and devices, the average fixed broadband speed as well as average Internet user will grow exponentially. Average fixed broadband speed is likely to grow from 5.1 Mbps in 2015 to 12.9 Mbps in 2020, while the average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will grow 2.2-fold from 3.3 Mbps to 7 Mbps.
The average Internet user generated 6.1 gigabytes per month data in 2015, that was 21% more from 5.0 gigabytes per month in 2014. Report says that there will be 572,934 households, generating more than 500 gigabytes per month in 2020.
Here are the key findings from the report.
Internet traffic
Internet traffic will grow 4.4 fold from 2015 to 2020 with a compound annual growth of 34%. In busy hour this figure is likely to go upto 7.2-fold with CAGR rate of 48%. The overall traffic will reach 4.1 Exabytes per month in 2020, up from 946 Petabytes per month in 2015. Almost equaling, 12 billion DVDs per year, 1 billion DVDs per month, or 1 million DVDs per hour.
Mobile data traffic
According to the report mobile traffic was 15.7% of total Internet traffic in 2015, and will be 41.7% of total Internet traffic in 2020. It will grow 12-fold from what it was in 2015 with a compound annual growth of 63% in 2020.
Interestingly, the overall traffic generated from mobile in 2020 will be equivalent to 77 times the volume of the entire Indian Internet in 2005. It will reach 1. 7 Exabytes per month. Mobile was 11% of total IP traffic in 2015, and will be 31% of total IP traffic in 2020.
Fixed-Wifi traffic
Fixed Wifi was 52.6% of total Internet traffic in 2015 and will be 47% of total Internet traffic in 2020. In terms of IP traffic, it was 38% of total IP traffic in 2015 and will be 34% of total IP traffic in 2020.
IP video traffic
IP video will be 81% of all IP traffic in 2020, up from 63% in 2015. The report predicts that IP video traffic will grow 5-fold from 2015 to 2020 with a compound annual growth rate of 40%. Consumer IP video traffic will be 83% of consumer IP traffic in 2020, up from 68% in 2015. While the business IP video traffic will be 66% of business IP traffic in 2020, up from 37% in 2015. Similarly, HD will be 49.8% of IP Video traffic in 2020, up from 19.3% in 2015 (68.8% CAGR).
Internet video
Internet video traffic will grow 6-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 45%. Total Internet video traffic (business and consumer, combined) will be 75% of all Internet traffic in 2020, up from 51% in 2015.
The consumer Internet video traffic will be 76% of consumer Internet traffic in 2020, up from 53% in 2015. While the business Internet video traffic will be 66% of business Internet traffic in 2020, up from 39% in 2015.
Also the Internet-Video-To-TV traffic will increase 7-fold between 2015 and 2020 (46.4% CAGR). HD will be 62.0% of Internet video traffic in 2020, up from 26.8% in 2015 (71.5% CAGR). Internet gaming traffic will grow 7-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 49%
Devices
In India, there will be 1.9 billion networked devices in 2020, up from 1.3 billion in 2015. The report says that 69% of all networked devices will be mobile-connected in 2020. PCs will account for 2% (43.8 million) of all networked devices in 2020, compared to 3% (44.5 million) in 2015, (-0.3% CAGR).
Tablets will account for 2% (44.0 million) of all networked devices in 2020, compared to 1% (12.1 million) in 2015, (29.4% CAGR). Portable devices such as smartphones and tablets accounted for 17% of IP traffic in 2015, and will be 48% of IP traffic in 2020.
4K TVs will account for 18% (9.5 million) of all flat panel TVs in 2020, compared to 2.1% (246,025) in 2015 (107.6% CAGR).