India stands at a pivotal moment in its economic journey. With a current growth trajectory of 6% annually, the nation is poised to reach a $6 trillion GDP by 2035. But what if India could aim higher? What if, instead of settling for steady progress, the country could unlock its potential to become an $8 trillion economy in the same timeframe? This ambitious vision was the centerpiece of Nandan Nilekani’s keynote address, titled The Great Unlock: India in 2035. Based on the keynote address publicly available on YouTube, we have created this article, which summarizes Nandan Nilekani’s vision for India
As the architect of India’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI)—including Aadhaar, UPI, and ONDC—Nilekani lays out a compelling blueprint to accelerate India’s economic transformation through technology, entrepreneurship, capital, and policy. Here’s how India can shift gears to achieve an 8% CAGR and redefine its future. (Source: The Great Unlock: India in 2035)
The Foundation of a Digital Revolution
India’s economic ascent over the past 15 years has been nothing short of remarkable, driven by a robust DPI that has transformed how citizens interact with services, markets, and each other. Aadhaar, launched to provide universal identity, now covers 1.2 billion adults, slashing e-KYC costs from $23 to just $0.50. This has enabled 700 million bank accounts, fueled the mobile revolution (with Jio onboarding 100 million customers in six months), and spurred a capital market boom with 180 million demat accounts. UPI, launched in 2016, processes 16–17 billion transactions monthly, serving 350–400 million users and 50 million merchants, while DigiLocker stores billions of documents for hundreds of millions of users.
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) has unified India into a single market for goods, complemented by innovations like FASTag (4 billion payments annually) and DigiYatra (14 million passengers since 2022). These milestones have created a seamless, digital-first ecosystem—a foundation ripe for exponential growth.
Yet, business as usual won’t suffice. While 6% growth is commendable, it falls short of lifting living standards for all, reducing income disparities, or capitalizing on India’s demographic dividend before it ages. To hit $8 trillion by 2035, India must address its headwinds—spatial inequality, low productivity, and pervasive informality—and harness four key unlocks: technology, capital, entrepreneurship, and formalization.
Confronting the Headwinds
India’s economic landscape is marked by stark contrasts. Just 13 of its 788 districts account for half its GDP. Income inequality is rampant: the top 10% earn 60% of national income, while the bottom 50% average just 71,000 rupees annually. Fertility disparities fuel massive migration—over 200 million people move between regions, akin to China’s industrialization wave—yet labor remains a free market, a unique strength. However, productivity lags at $7 per hour (versus $28 in China and $82 in the U.S.), and land, which holds 50% of India’s wealth, remains unmonetizable due to fragmented ownership and outdated systems. Most critically, only 15% of India’s workforce is formalized, compared to 60% in Brazil, and of 63 million micro-businesses, just 8 million file GST. These challenges stifle growth, but they also highlight untapped potential waiting to be unleashed.
Technology: Scaling AI and DPI to a Billion Indians
Technology is India’s trump card. With 500 million smartphone users, platforms like WhatsApp (530 million users) and PhonePe (350 million) have already penetrated deep. The next frontier is reaching a billion people by making smartphones cheaper (sub-10,000 rupees) and networks ubiquitous (shifting to 4G/5G). But the real game-changer is AI, tailored to India’s 22 official languages and hundreds of dialects. AI can deliver contextualized knowledge—be it agricultural advice via the Open Agri Network or literacy tools in Tamil Nadu’s schools—directly to farmers, students, and businesses in their native tongues.
India’s DPI expertise—building Aadhaar and UPI at scale for pennies—positions it to create frugal, population-scale AI. Open-source models, like those from AI for Bharat, will empower startups to integrate Indian-language interfaces, amplifying access to markets and services. This tech unlock could bridge the digital divide and supercharge productivity across sectors.
Capital: Fueling Growth from Seed to IPO
India’s capital ecosystem is maturing into a self-sustaining cycle. From 7,900 angel investors (many ex-entrepreneurs like Kunal Shah funding the next generation) to $45 billion in venture capital and $30 billion from family offices, funding spans the startup lifecycle. Public market exits hit $15 billion in 2023, fueled by 100 million equity investors and $24 billion in annual SIP inflows. By 2035, India is poised to become the world’s top IPO market, with companies like Zepto and Razorpay returning to list domestically. Credit is also scaling, with $4 billion in venture debt, $600 billion from NBFCs, and $1.6 trillion in bank lending capacity.
Two unlocks can turbocharge this: scaling the Account Aggregator (AA) system, which has facilitated $10 billion in loans by leveraging transaction data, and tokenizing land assets. AA can extend beyond personal loans (10% penetration) to businesses (2–3%), while tokenization—using blockchain-like ledgers—could unlock land’s $1 trillion-plus value, enabling owners to sell or borrow against it. These moves would flood the economy with capital, addressing the $530 billion credit gap for small businesses.
Entrepreneurship: A Million Startups by 2035
Entrepreneurship is exploding, with 150,000 startups today projected to hit 1 million by 2035 at a 20% CAGR—far outpacing the broader economy. Success breeds success: Flipkart spawned PhonePe, Zomato birthed new ventures, and every IPO sparks dozens more startups as founders and employees reinvest. Angels and VCs amplify this virtuous cycle. Crucially, half these startups are emerging outside metros, tackling unique problems—Upstox for tier-2 retail, Anupam for street hawkers, or Jar’s digital piggy bank reviving a 1920s savings model. Platforms like Meesho and ONDC are connecting 10 million MSMEs to national markets, modernizing them with tech like ClearTax and UPI. The unlock here is funding and supporting non-metro startups to reduce spatial inequality and unleash grassroots innovation.
Formalization: Reimagining Work for a Digital Generation
India’s 380 million Gen Z—born between 1997 and 2012—are AI natives, raised with smartphones and UPI. By 2035, they’ll dominate a workforce increasingly digitized and female-inclusive. Companies like Urban Company (AC repairs, not just manicures), Rapido (9 million gig drivers), and Zetwerk ($1.6 billion in revenue) are redefining work—spanning formal jobs, gig work, and micro-entrepreneurship. Digitization addresses spatial inequality, with 80% of CreditVidya’s loans and 20% of Rapido’s rides in non-metros. The next UPI? Energy—rooftop solar and EV batteries turning homes into producers and traders.
Formalization’s unlock lies in portability and deregulation. A national system for portable credentials (e.g., a kimchi-making certificate) and benefits (insurance, pensions) could lift formalization from 15% to 80%. Simplifying colonial-era laws, reducing compliances, and decriminalizing minor offenses would unshackle entrepreneurs, fostering a million-strong startup ecosystem.
The Path to $8 Trillion
India’s $8 trillion dream hinges on eight actionable steps: AI for a billion Indians (focusing on language, agriculture, and education), maximizing AA penetration, tokenizing land, funding non-metro startups, modernizing 10 million MSMEs, and turbocharging formalization with portable credentials, benefits, and simpler laws. These unlocks don’t require vague policies but specific, executable strategies—many already in motion. Technology will democratize access, capital will fuel growth, entrepreneurship will innovate, and formalization will harness India’s human potential. If executed, 6% growth becomes 8%, and $6 trillion becomes $8 trillion by 2035. India’s future is bright; it’s time to unlock it.