Gartner has predicted that Consumer 3D printing is around five to 10 years away from mainstream adoption.
3D printing is evolving rapidly although many technologies are still five to 10 years away from mainstream adoption. Consumer adoption will be outpaced by business and medical applications that have more compelling use cases in the short term, according to Gartner, Inc.
“Consumer 3D printing is around five to 10 years away from mainstream adoption,” said Pete Basiliere, Research Vice President at Gartner. “Today, approximately 40 manufacturers sell the 3D printers most commonly used in businesses, and over 200 startups worldwide are developing and selling consumer-oriented 3D printers, priced from just a few hundred dollars.
However, even this price is too high for mainstream consumers at this time, despite broad awareness of the technology and considerable media interest.”
Based on conversations on 3D printing with organizations ranging from technology providers to end users, government agencies, educational institutions and investment firms, Gartner has identified two themes.
First, the enterprise 3D printing market is very different from the consumer market. Fundamentally, however, the two markets are driven by different uses and requirements and must be evaluated separately.
Second, 3D printing is not one technology but seven different ones. “Hype around home use obfuscates the reality that 3D printing involves a complex ecosystem of software, hardware and materials whose use is not as simple to use as ‘hitting print’ on a paper printer,” said Basiliere.
In two to five years, there will be greater adoption of enterprise 3D printing, nurtured in part by the continued acceptance and use of 3D print creation software, 3D scanners and 3D printing service bureaus. “At around this time, 3D printing of medical devices will offer exciting, life-altering benefits that will result in global use of 3D printing technology for prosthetics and implants,” added Mr. Basiliere.
Lastly, and reflecting different market drivers, macro 3D printing of large structures and classroom 3D printing are more than 10 years away from mainstream adoption. This is not to say that valid use cases for each do not exist: the work on macro 3D printing shows great promise but has only just begun. Meanwhile, adoption of any new technology within secondary and post-secondary schools, even one as transformative as 3D printing, is always expensive and difficult to implement, especially when considered in relation to the explosion of other educational technology that is competing for attention in the classroom.
