Worldwide generative AI (GenAI) spending is expected to total $644 billion in 2025, an increase of 76.4% from 2024, according to a forecast by Gartner, Inc.
Expectations for GenAI’s capabilities are declining due to high failure rates in initial proof-of-concept (POC) work and dissatisfaction with current GenAI results,” said John-David Lovelock, Distinguished VP Analyst at Gartner. Despite this, foundational model providers invest billions annually to enhance GenAI models’ size, performance, and reliability. This paradox will persist through 2025 and 2026.
“Ambitious internal projects from 2024 will face scrutiny in 2025, as CIOs opt for commercial off-the-shelf solutions for more predictable implementation and business value. Despite model improvements, CIOs will reduce POC and self-development efforts, focusing instead on GenAI features from existing software providers,” said Lovelock.
GenAI spending is poised for significant growth across all core markets and submarkets in 2025 (see Table 1). GenAI will have a transformative impact across all IT spending markets, suggesting a future where AI technologies become increasingly integral to business operations and consumer products.
AI Capable Consumer Devices to Drive GenAI Spending
GenAI spending in 2025 will be driven largely by the integration of AI capabilities into hardware, such as servers, smartphones, and PCs, with 80% of GenAI spending going towards hardware.
“The market’s growth trajectory is heavily influenced by the increasing prevalence of AI-enabled devices, which are expected to comprise almost the entire consumer device market by 2028,” said Lovelock. “However, consumers are not chasing these features. As the manufacturers embed AI as a standard feature in consumer devices, consumers will be forced to purchase them.”
Gartner’s GenAI spending forecast methodology relies heavily on rigorous analysis of the sales by over a thousand vendors across the entire range of GenAI products and services. Gartner uses primary research techniques, complemented by secondary research sources, to build a comprehensive database of market size data on which to base its forecast.
The Gartner GenAI spending forecast delivers a unique perspective on GenAI spending across the hardware, software, and IT services segments. These reports help Gartner clients understand market opportunities and challenges. The most recent GenAI spending forecast research is available to Gartner clients in “Forecast Alert: GenAI IT Spending, 2023-2028, Worldwide.”
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